As Afghanistan pushes forward with its ambitious canal project, neighboring countries are keeping a close watch on its potential ripple effects—on both the environment and regional relations.
A bold vision to transform northern Afghanistan
In the dry and desolate plains of northern Afghanistan, a monumental construction project is quietly reshaping the landscape. The Kush-Tepa Canal, a 285-kilometer-long lifeline for the region, is more than just an engineering feat. Initiated by the Taliban in 2022, this canal represents a bid to turn vast stretches of desert into fertile farmland, offering hope for a nation grappling with economic hardship.
The idea of harnessing the Amu-Darya River for agriculture dates back to the 1970s, but it wasn’t until recently that the plan began to materialize. Today, 100 kilometers of the canal have already been completed, and the project is seen as a crucial step in addressing Afghanistan’s growing food crisis.
For the Taliban, the canal is more than just a solution to the country’s agricultural challenges—it’s a symbol of economic recovery and national development. But beyond Afghanistan’s borders, the project is raising both hopes and concerns, particularly among its neighbors who also rely on the Amu-Darya River.
A response to economic strain
Why is the Taliban pushing so hard to complete this canal, despite limited resources? Afghanistan’s economy has been severely strained by Western sanctions and the freezing of its state assets. Nearly the entire population is living in poverty, and food insecurity is a growing threat. The Kush-Tepa Canal offers a potential lifeline, promising to irrigate over 550,000 hectares of previously barren land, unlocking the country’s agricultural potential.
However, the urgency to finish the project has led to challenges. Water seepage, unstable canal walls, and a lack of infrastructure to distribute water effectively are among the technical difficulties plaguing the project. The Taliban’s desire to fast-track construction has often meant sacrificing essential standards of modern engineering.
Still, for Afghanistan’s leadership, the canal isn’t just about survival—it’s about demonstrating that they can govern effectively and build a sustainable future.
Ripple effects beyond Afghanistan
While the canal could transform northern Afghanistan, it is also sending ripples across Central Asia. The Amu-Darya River, which feeds the canal, is a crucial resource for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two countries heavily dependent on the river for their agricultural sectors. Roughly one-third of their populations work in agriculture, making a steady water supply vital.
The Kush-Tepa Canal is expected to divert up to 20% of the Amu-Darya’s annual flow—a figure that has many in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan worried. Both nations have been dealing with water shortages and drought conditions, and the canal’s construction threatens to exacerbate these issues.
Diplomatic channels have already been opened. Uzbekistan has engaged in talks with the Taliban to seek solutions and mitigate any negative impact on its own water supply. While the discussions remain cordial, there are concerns that future droughts could strain relations if water becomes scarcer in the region.
Environmental concerns and ecological balance
Beyond the geopolitical implications, there are significant environmental risks tied to the canal’s construction. The Amu-Darya River system supports not just agriculture but a delicate ecosystem. Diverting large amounts of water to the canal could lead to soil salinity, degraded land, and loss of biodiversity in the river basin.
Without proper planning, the water intended for new farmland may seep away into the desert sand, wasting the precious resource. This poses a real risk to both the canal’s effectiveness and the broader ecological balance in the region.
These environmental concerns highlight the need for collaboration between Afghanistan and its neighbors, who share both the benefits and risks of the Amu-Darya’s waters.
A symbol of growth or division?
For the Taliban, the Kush-Tepa Canal is about more than just irrigation. It is a symbol of political legitimacy, both domestically and internationally. Afghanistan’s leadership hopes that by completing such a massive infrastructure project, they can demonstrate their ability to govern effectively and attract international recognition. But the rush to complete the canal, without adhering to international norms or coordinating with neighboring countries, has raised concerns about its broader impact.
While the canal has the potential to boost Afghanistan’s economic fortunes and improve food security, it also risks complicating relations with neighboring countries.
A path forward: cooperation or tension?
As the canal nears completion, the key question is whether Afghanistan and its neighbors can find a way to cooperate on shared water resources. With increasing demand for water, both due to population growth and climate change, the Amu-Darya Basin is becoming a focal point for regional collaboration.
Experts suggest that a multilateral agreement on water-sharing could be the best way to prevent any future tension. Such an agreement would allow Afghanistan to pursue its economic goals while ensuring that its neighbors also receive their fair share of water.
However, creating this kind of framework will require trust, negotiation, and a long-term vision for the region’s shared water resources.
A shared future for Central Asia
The Kush-Tepa Canal is a reminder of how deeply intertwined the fates of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are. As Afghanistan strives for economic recovery, the canal may either serve as a catalyst for growth or as a source of friction in Central Asia.
With the right diplomatic efforts, the canal could become a model for regional cooperation in water management, benefiting all who rely on the Amu-Darya River. But it will take careful planning, technical improvements, and most importantly, dialogue, to ensure the canal strengthens relationships rather than strains them.
Credits to: Hamza Boltaev (University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED), Tashkent) (Link to source)
