Climate change and Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus in Central Asia

Author(s): Achim Maas; Gulzhamal Issayeva; Lukas Rüttinger; Atabek Umirbekov; Raul Daussa

Published by: Adelphi

Published in: 12th Jan 2001

Format: report

Region: Central Asia

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Abstract:

Executive Summary

Few expected the uprisings which swept across the Middle East in 2011, washing away multiple governments and resulting in escalating violence. At the core are, among other issues, deep socio-economic disparities, not the least resulting from fast increasing prices for basic commodities such as food and energy. Societies were disillusioned with governments which were unwilling or unable to solve these problems. Without early and substantive action, Central Asia may face similar political upheaval due to the impacts of climate change on the water-energy-agriculture nexus.
This is the key finding of a scenario-building process on the impacts of climate change in Central Asia. This paper reports on a workshop with experts and regional stakeholders, which was conducted in November 2011 in Dushanbe. The workshop focused on developing scenarios on how the interaction of climate change, political stability and economic growth may impact the agriculture-water-energy nexus. In addition, it aimed at developing recommendations. It is part of a project launched by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) at the Chairmanship conference in Bucharest in October 2009 and jointly implemented with the European Environment Agency (EEA). The workshop in Central Asia was financially supported by the German Federal Foreign Office.
As Central Asia is warming faster than the global average, climate change will hit the region sooner and harder than other areas. Invariably, across all four scenarios developed in the workshop, action has to be taken in the coming decade starting now. If action is delayed, climate change impacts will converge with resource exhaustion and growing regional and global demands for water, food and energy. Social and political structures will become brittle, and events such as severe droughts and other natural disasters can catalyse crisis. Though strong economic growth may mitigate some of the risks, this will only make the region more dependent on imports and thus on other countries. Furthermore, growth based on fossil fuels is not sustainable, as these resources will inevitably be exhausted. Without a viable substitute, first economic and, subsequently, political crisis will occur.

Topics: Agriculture|Climate Change|IWRM|Transboundary Water Management,  

Keywords: Agriculture|Climate Change|IWRM|Transboundary water issues,